Nintendo fans might need to be patient! Japanese analysts predict the Nintendo Switch 2 will remain scarcely available in global stores until at least next Spring, despite launching June 6th with impressive initial sales projections.
Nintendo Switch 2 Supply Shortage Expected
According to reports from Nikkei, leading analysts are forecasting limited availability through early 2026. The console’s first-month sales following the June 6 launch might be around 6 million units, according to Toyo Securities senior analyst Hideki Yasuda and UBS Securities analyst Zhai Yijia.
Despite supply constraints, ambitious sales targets are being set for the fiscal year ending March 2026.
Sales Projections & Timeline
| Analyst | First Month Sales | Fiscal Year 2026 | Long-term Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideki Yasuda | 6M units | 20M units | Optimistic growth |
| Zhai Yijia | 6M units | 18M units | Conservative approach |
| DFC Intelligence | Not specified | Not specified | 100M by 2029 |
| vs Original Switch | 20-30% higher | 20-30% higher | Potential to surpass |
Why the Supply Shortage?
Unlike previous console launches that suffered from semiconductor shortages, the Switch 2’s scarcity appears to be driven by overwhelming demand rather than production issues. As Yijia notes, initial sales are higher than those of the Switch and Sony’s PlayStation 5, but this should not be seen simply as an increase in demand.
The analysts believe these ambitious goals would outperform the original Switch by 20% to 30%, indicating strong market confidence in Nintendo’s latest offering.
Analyst Perspectives Differ
While Yasuda remains optimistic about long-term success, stating it is overwhelmingly popular compared to past game consoles, Yijia takes a more cautious approach. He believes it will be difficult to surpass the cumulative sales of the Switch, despite strong initial performance.
Market analysis firm DFC Intelligence estimated that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell over 100 million units by the end of 2029, which would definitely keep it on track to surpass the original console over time.
Pricing Concerns Acknowledged
Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa has addressed pricing concerns, particularly for younger consumers. The company believes the pricing of Nintendo Switch 2 is appropriate for the gaming experience it offers, though they acknowledge the higher price point compared to past gaming systems.
For gaming enthusiasts following Nintendo’s latest developments, this supply shortage represents both challenge and opportunity in the console market.
Stay updated on availability through Nintendo‘s official website for the latest launch information.
FAQs
When will Nintendo Switch 2 be widely available?
Analysts predict it will remain scarce until at least Spring 2026.
How many Switch 2 units are expected to sell in the first month?
Analysts estimate around 6 million units in the first month after launch.
